The Quote Below—More Misinformation from the Media
“The claim: At a recent campaign rally, former President Donald Trump fused two high-profile subjects into one explosive claim: the Social Security program, which older Americans rely on for retirement benefits, and the flow of migrants into the United States.
“ ‘Your Social Security will be destroyed by the people coming in. There’s too many of them. It’s not sustainable,’ he said March 16 in Vandalia, Ohio.
“The ruling: However someone views immigration’s value, Trump is wrong about the relationship between immigrants and Social Security.
“Social Security’s fiscal challenges stem from a shortage of workers compared with beneficiaries. Though immigration alone won’t make the program solvent, it would increase the worker-to-beneficiary ratio, potentially for decades, thus extending the program’s fiscal life.
“Social Security’s trust fund is projected to run dry in about a decade, which would prompt large-scale, across-the-board cuts.
“But however someone views immigration, saying it will hurt Social Security’s fiscal viability, as Trump did, is questionable. To keep Social Security fiscally sustainable, few developments would be as helpful as seeing high rates of immigration. . . .
“The key threat to Social Security’s long-term viability is a shortage of workers feeding their tax dollars into the system, alongside a growing number of retirement-age Americans qualifying to receive benefits. . . .
“In 2000, there were 3.4 workers paying into Social Security for every retiree drawing benefits. By 2010, that had fallen to 2.9 workers per beneficiary. By 2020, it was 2.7. And by 2030, it’s expected to be 2.5. . . . “One way to improve the worker-to-beneficiary ratio is to have higher rates of immigration. . . .
“Even many immigrants who are in the United States illegally pay taxes. Sometimes, this consists of money withheld from their paycheck, a portion of which is earmarked for Social Security . . . In other cases, an undocumented immigrant will file a tax return using an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number [TIN] rather than a Social Security number. . . .” — Former President Donald Trump Says Immigration Hurts Social Security, Houston Chronicle, Louis Jacobson, 3/24/24 [Link]
Fact Check of Above Quote: Immigration will not save Social Security. The idea that immigrants can shore up the system by bringing in younger workers is flawed because the average age of immigrants is increasing, even as their birthrates are decreasing. To illustrate, according to the Census Bureau, if we had zero net immigration between now and 2060, in that year 57 percent our population would be of working age (16 to 64). If the current level of immigration continues until then, the working-age percentage would only be 59 percent.
Many illegal aliens do pay into Social Security without being able—at present—to access the benefits. This gain, however, is significantly offset by the fact that in terms of general revenues and expenditures, illegal aliens take more from the system than they pay into it. This will impact Social Security because a growing share of its revenues are from general funding. Furthermore, it is quite possible that many or most illegal aliens eventually will get amnesty, and therefore access to Social Security benefits. Their “progressive” advocates are working tirelessly to make them legal residents and voters.
Social Security does need reform, but instead of immigration other solutions could be more effective, such as raising the age for eligibility and enticing discouraged working-age people into the workforce. One thing for Americans to keep in mind is that social insecurity will be the consequence of a society increasing fragmented by diversity. In this situation, citizens with long ties to our country may face strident demands for cash and resources from empowered newcomers.