The Quote Below—More Misinformation from the Media
“The surge in immigration will help bolster the US economy by about $7 trillion over the next decade by swelling the labor force and increasing demand, the Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday.
“The stronger growth will be good for the federal government, lifting revenues by about $1 trillion more than otherwise over the period, according to the non-partisan agency. Wages, however, will rise more slowly, in part reflecting the increase in the number of lower skilled workers, in the CBO’s estimation. . . .
“The increased migration stems mainly from people entering the US illegally and from those released by Customs and Border Protection officials with humanitarian parole or with a notice to appear before an immigration judge. After a lag, many of those migrants join the labor force. The agency’s estimates come amid a fierce political debate in Washington over the surge of migration at the US-Mexico border and what should be done to control it. . . .
“The expanded workforce will put downward pressure on average inflation-adjusted wages, according to the agency. That effect is projected to partly reverse after 2027, but wages are still expected to be slightly lower than otherwise in 2034 in the CBO’s estimation.
“Wages are depressed in part because many migrants are expected to work in lower-paying jobs, thus lowering the average salary. But an increase in the supply of labor also plays a role, according to the report.
“The CBO has stressed that its population projections are highly uncertain, especially in later years. It’s assuming that the surge in immigration that began in 2022 continues through 2026, then subsides.
“In a briefing for reporters, CBO Director Phil Swagel said the agency did not take account of housing and other costs states and localities are confronting because of the surge in migration as those are outside the agency’s purview. — US. Immigration to Boost U.S. GDP by $7 Trillion Over Decade, Says CBO, Rich Miller, Bloomberg, 2/7/24 [Link]
Fact Check of Above Quote: This claim about $7 trillion windfall from immigration is highly misleading. As columnist Joe Guzzardi points out, “Per capita growth, not GDP, is the true measure of a society’s prosperity. While it is accurate that a larger population invariably results in a greater aggregate economy. [M] ore workers, more consumers and more government spending all expand the GDP. But a nation’s standard of living is determined by per capita, i.e., per person, GDP, not the overall size of the economy. Thus the Netherlands is more prosperous than India, even though it has a much lower GDP. The key again is per capita GDP.
Immigration, however, does increase the wealth of some sectors of society, among them the employers of cheap immigrant labor. Nevertheless, benefits are limited to them, and the liabilities to many others. Interestingly. this article notes the CBO’s acknowledgement that immigration exerts a “downward pressure” on workers’ wages. Revealing too is its statement that it did not consider the costs of immigration to states and localities.
Mass immigration does indeed make us bigger as a country. But that doesn’t mean that it makes us better.