According to the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), immigration added 52.7 million people to the U.S. population between 1982 and 2017, accounting for more than 56 percent of population growth over this time period. This estimate is based on Census Bureau surveys that identify immigrants and their year of arrival, as well as their U.S.-born children and grandchildren.
The CIS report also finds that immigration growth accounts for an increasing share of population growth in recent years, even though the number of new immigrants arriving fell some from 2017 to 2020 and overall population growth slowed. The report estimates that the net migration of immigrants plus births to immigrants was equal to 77 percent of population growth from 2016 to 2021.
The primary reason immigration now accounts for such a large share of the increase in the population is that the level of immigration remains very high coupled with the well-documented decline in natural increase among U.S. residents — births minus deaths — even before Covid.
The Census Bureau population estimates, which run through the middle of 2022, show that net migration by itself accounted for 80 percent of U.S. population growth from 2021 to 2022. However, even this number is probably an understatement in the view of CIS because the method used by the Census Bureau to estimate migration cannot fully capture the scale of the ongoing border crisis and resulting surge of new illegal immigration into the country.
The CIS report argues that immigration policy has a significant impact on the future size of the U.S. population and that federal agencies should estimate and disclose this impact when making policy changes, as required by the National Environmental Policy Act.
In addition, a report by the Pew Research Center shows that immigrants contribute to population growth because of both their own numbers and their above-average fertility. The Pew report highlights that immigration has made the U.S. more racially and ethnically diverse over time, and that this trend will continue in the future. The report estimates that by 2065, whites will no longer be a majority in the U.S., while Hispanics will make up 24 percent of the population, Asians will make up 14 percent, blacks will make up 13 percent, and other groups will make up 5 percent.
As these reports show, ultimately it is up to policymakers and citizens to decide what kind of country they want America to be in terms of its size, composition, and character. We know what our current policymakers want. Can we citizens make a difference?
For more, see CIS.org.