The Congressional Budget Office has released an economic forecast of the next decade. Titled “An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034,” the report predicts that wage gains will initially drop to three percent, but also that those gains will then be reduced further by inflation of two percent per year after 2025. The result will be a tiny one percent post-inflation annual wage gain for Americans, thanks to the huge influx of foreign labor under Biden. During the period 2021 – 2026, the CBO says 8.7 million legal and illegal migrants will be added to the US population.
Though that influx will help grow the economy by 2.4 percent in the ensuing decade as migrants take jobs, pay rent, consume food, and buy other products, it will slow productivity growth by raising interest and mortgage rates. What’s more, the relative productivity of the largely un-skilled newcomers will be low. The report predicts that the productivity gains from the upsurge will be only about 1.4 percent yearly, contrasted with, say, that of China, which will be around seven percent per year due to its government spending heavily on automation, robots, and cheap energy.
America’s policy is far different: We spend heavily to import, settle, and aid migrants in order to inflate the US consumer economy and grow the stock market.
China’s policy will result in population decline, long considered deadly by economists, yet such thinking is beginning to change. As BlackRock founder Larry Fink told the World Economic Forum in April:
We always used to think [a] shrinking population is a cause for negative [economic] growth. But in my conversations with the leadership of these large, developed countries [such as China, and Japan] that have xenophobic anti-immigration policies, they don’t allow anybody to come in — [so they have] shrinking demographics — these countries will rapidly develop robotics and AI and technology … If a promise of all that transforms productivity, which most of us think it will — we’ll be able to elevate the standard living in countries, the standard of living for individuals, even with shrinking populations.
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